The full-scale war in Ukraine directly affected families’ decisions to have children, and statistics of recent years demonstrate a sharp decrease in the number of newborns against the backdrop of hostilities, losses, and mass forced emigration of the population abroad. According to estimates by international structures and data published by world media, birth rates in our country have dropped to a historical level that does not even provide for simple population reproduction, which indicates a deep demographic crisis of wartime.
Dynamics of indicators: from pre-war level to critical limit
Publications by international media and assessments by United Nations structures have recorded an unprecedented decline in the birth rate in Ukraine. According to data provided by CNBC, citing estimates from the United Nations, in 2021 the total fertility rate in Ukraine was 1.22 children per woman.
In 2025, this figure decreased to 1.00, which means an average of one child per woman of reproductive age. Currently, the actual birth rate fluctuates within 0.8–0.9.
To maintain the population size without taking into account migration, a coefficient of 2.1 is required, which is considered the threshold for population reproduction. Deviation from this level by more than two times creates a situation in which each subsequent generation becomes numerically smaller than the previous one, and the age pyramid gradually loses balance between younger and older groups.
Reasons for the decline in the birth rate
The decline in the birth rate in Ukraine is taking place in conditions of a full-scale war, which directly affects demographic processes. The death of military personnel, prolonged mobilization of men, and forced separation of families due to the evacuation of women and children abroad create a situation in which birth planning is postponed or becomes impossible. Added to this is the mass emigration of working-age citizens, a significant portion of whom have settled in European Union countries, which reduces the number of potential fathers within the country.
Security risks associated with missile strikes, destruction of infrastructure, and uncertainty about the duration of hostilities create an atmosphere in which long-term family decisions are postponed indefinitely. The birth of a child usually requires a sense of stability and predictability of the future, while war creates the opposite conditions in which basic security issues come to the fore.
Economic consequences and forecast of labor shortage
Analysts of the Center for Economic Strategy draw attention to the fact that the reduction in the number of working-age people will have a delayed but tangible effect on the economy. Over the next 10–15 years, smaller generations will enter the labor market, which will not be able to compensate for the natural retirement of those who work now. This imbalance means a potential shortage of personnel in key sectors, a decrease in tax revenues, and an increase in the burden on the pension system and social funds.
With a shrinking taxpayer base, the state will be forced to either revise the parameters of social benefits or increase fiscal pressure on a smaller number of working citizens. At the same time, an increase in the share of older people in the population structure will mean increased costs for healthcare and social support.
Economic incentives, in particular, birth payments or tax benefits, have a limited impact on families’ decisions to have children in wartime. Analysts emphasize that the determining factors remain a sense of physical security, access to stable work, and the predictability of the economic situation. Inflation, losses at the front, and uncertainty about the duration of the war weaken the effect of monetary support programs, as short-term material assistance does not compensate for long-term risks.
The combination of demographic and migration processes is shaping a trajectory whose consequences will unfold over decades. If fertility rates remain at a level close to one birth per woman, and a significant part of young citizens continue to live outside the country, Ukraine will face a steady population decline and catastrophic changes in the economy.
