While Ukraine heroically defends itself from the enemy and rapidly increases the production of military equipment and weapons, one of the key problems remains unsolved – the lack of its own gunpowder production. At this time, when the world market is in a frenzy of demand for military products, our state found itself critically dependent on imported supplies. Paradoxically, during the years of war with Russia, Ukraine still does not have the capacity to independently produce gunpowder. This is not just a threat to defense capability, but a direct challenge to national security that needs to be addressed.
Problems of gunpowder production
The main problem in defense production is not so much the number of shells as the powder charges for them. The lack of gunpowder is a global problem, and it is especially felt in Ukraine. The lack of own production of gunpowder in Ukraine for many years is the result of a number of complex circumstances. After the collapse of the USSR, a large part of the infrastructure for the production of gunpowder remained in Russia. This became a serious challenge for Ukraine, which since independence did not focus on the restoration of this industry. Important strategic decisions in the field of defense production were not a priority before the start of a full-scale war. Gunpowder production requires huge investments and modern technologies. Its launch requires specialized enterprises, high-precision equipment and qualified specialists. This creates additional complications in wartime, when resources are limited and the need for immediate investment in other areas of the defense industry becomes a hindrance to long-term projects.
In addition, the production of gunpowder requires cotton pulp, a key component made from cotton. In Ukraine, it is not grown on a large scale, and its import is complicated due to hostilities and global competition on the raw material market. This means that Ukraine is forced to rely on foreign supplies of gunpowder, which increases its dependence.
Also, the creation of new production in wartime conditions is a particularly difficult task due to bureaucratic and political obstacles. All processes require coordination at the state level, and even when there is political will, the bureaucracy often delays these decisions. Despite the apparent urgency of the problem, the lack of a clear strategy and high-level support is slowing progress.
Another serious obstacle is the constant threat of missile attacks from Russia. Any new construction or modernization of enterprises become potential targets, which increases the risks for such a project. Given the location of strategic enterprises, such attacks can have serious consequences for the national security and defense capabilities of the country.
Historically, it so happened that the Shostkin state-owned powder factory “Zirka” was one of the key enterprises of Ukraine in the production of explosives in Ukraine. Its history begins in the 18th century, when the plant provided the military needs of empires and became one of the country’s key enterprises during the USSR. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, its importance decreased significantly, and due to the lack of proper investment, the plant gradually declined. The production facilities are outdated, which significantly limited the plant’s ability to produce modern types of gunpowder. In addition, the plant did not receive sufficient funding for modernization, which caused problems with the production of explosives in large volumes.
Despite the fact that the Shostkinsky plant still has certain capabilities for the production of individual components of gunpowder and explosives, Ukraine does not have a full production cycle. This means that many key steps, such as obtaining raw materials and mixing components, remain inaccessible.
Military actions and the location of the plant near the border with Russia further complicate its work. The constant threat of missile strikes makes any production vulnerable and risky. However, despite all the difficulties, the question of modernization of the plant is constantly raised by experts. They emphasize the need to restore the full cycle of gunpowder production so that Ukraine can become independent of imported raw materials. However, these plans face difficulties in the form of a lack of investment, technology and threats from the enemy, which do not allow a quick solution to this problem.
One of the main difficulties lies in the manufacture of 155 mm shells according to NATO standards. This type of projectile requires a three-component gunpowder, the production technology of which is quite complex. The basis for its production is nitrocellulose, which is obtained from chemically treated cotton. It is not grown in Ukraine, and the main regions of its cultivation are under the influence of Russia, which further complicates the issue. Experts note that Western countries were unable to supply Ukraine with a million shells not because of a lack of funding, but because of technical difficulties with production. In the USA, production capacities are loaded until 2028, and in Europe – for several years ahead.
Even if Ukraine is able to organize the production of 155-mm projectiles, gunpowder will have to be purchased abroad, since without it the projectiles will remain just metal shells without a combat function. According to Vladyslav Belbas, General Director of the company “Ukrainian Armored Technology”, currently Ukraine should focus on the production of Soviet-style 122 and 152 mm projectiles, for which the supply of components can still be found in the countries of Eastern Europe. Although Ukraine used to produce one- and two-component gunpowder for Soviet artillery shells, this production was abandoned and went bankrupt in 2013-2014.
Even earlier, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov explained that the creation of new enterprises and capacities to meet the needs of the army is a very complex and long process that cannot be carried out in a short time. One of the biggest problems is the lack of own production of gunpowder, due to which Ukraine is critically dependent on imported supplies. He stated that even if there is a desire, it is physically impossible to completely close all the needs of the military industry within the country. Most of the world’s production of components such as gunpowder is done by the private sector, and Ukraine also relies on private companies for many key defense challenges. However, creating a full cycle of gunpowder production is a matter that requires time, significant resources and international support.
Ukrainian gunpowder realities
Each artillery shot is not just an explosion and a projectile flight. For its implementation, several kilograms of gunpowder are needed, it is it that provides the projectile with a powerful impulse and speed, thanks to which it overcomes huge distances and hits targets. The war in Ukraine and hostilities in the Middle East created a huge demand for ammunition, which in turn made gunpowder products a rare and highly sought after commodity.
Everything starts with raw materials. It can be wood, industrial hemp or cotton. Most often, it is cotton that is used, because cotton pulp is obtained from it, which is one of the key components in the process of creating gunpowder. The last time cotton was grown in Ukraine was in the middle of the 20th century. So now, in effect, we are starting this process from scratch. The authorities have already launched an experiment in the cultivation of cotton in Odesa, and for this purpose several varieties were imported from abroad. Now the question is: will Ukrainian farmers be able to provide our defense industry with a sufficient amount of raw materials for large-scale production of gunpowder?
Problems with gunpowder exist not only in Ukraine. Western countries are also facing the need for mass production of ammunition for the first time since the Cold War. Large defense companies, which used to produce tens of thousands of shells a year, now aim to produce hundreds of thousands. For example, the European giant Rheinmetall this year received a historic contract for 8.5 billion euros for the supply of 155 mm shells. But even this scale of production is faced with the same problem – the shortage of gunpowder. New production lines are actively being launched all over the world, but this is still not enough to meet the growing demand.
Europe realized this in time. In order not to lose in the global race for shells, the EU countries created a fund to support ammunition manufacturers for 2 billion euros. Of this amount, about 75% will go to the construction of new gunpowder factories and the increase in the production of other explosive substances. Thanks to such subsidies and a large state order, the EU plans to produce up to 1.7 million artillery shells per year by the end of 2024. But here’s the catch – not all of these ammunition will be directed to help Ukraine. A significant part of them will be exported or to replenish the internal reserves of European countries.
Unlike Europe, we do not have billions in development subsidies. Our facilities are constantly under fire, which makes production much more difficult, and even those who take steps to increase the production of munitions face the fact that mass production remains out of reach. The situation with one of the large state factories is an eloquent example. The plant was unable to fulfill a multibillion-dollar Defense Ministry contract this year due to a shortage of gunpowder. If Ukraine had stable access to raw materials and long-term contracts, the number of shells produced could increase by hundreds of thousands. But because the government is only awarding contracts for one year instead of the promised three, our manufacturers cannot plan their gunpowder purchases several years in advance, as their foreign competitors do. As a result, we have to buy the remnants of what is still on the market, and this greatly limits the possibilities of our industry.
The problem is not only in the shortage of gunpowder, but also in the fact that the market of powder charges is actually monopolized by large manufacturers, which are often associated with defense companies, which primarily provide their own production with the scarce component. Western gunpowder factories are closely integrated into these defense corporations. For example, one of the largest European manufacturers of gunpowder, Eurenco, is owned by the French government and works closely with the state-owned ammunition manufacturer KNDS France. A controlling stake in the German company Nitrochemie belongs to the defense giant Rheinmetall, which also manufactures shells. The Spanish factory in the city of Granada, which has a 700-year history, belongs to the Slovak company MSM Group, which produces ammunition. The American company Alliant Powder also works together with the defense manufacturer Vista Outdoor.
Is there a prospect?
The situation in Ukraine forces the authorities to consider various options for obtaining gunpowder for defense needs. One possible solution is to obtain explosives and other important raw materials in the form of aid from allies. Negotiations on the joint production of gunpowder with European countries are also underway. In addition, in the future, own production may be established, but this task is extremely difficult and requires a lot of time and resources.
Until 2022, Ukraine could not build a full cycle of ammunition production, which would also include gunpowder production. This led to the need to start from the very beginning – growing cotton, which is an important source of raw materials for nitrocellulose. Nitrocellulose is the basis for smokeless gunpowder used in modern artillery shells. It is worth noting that not every type of gunpowder is suitable for projectiles. For example, black powder, which is based on charcoal, leaves a large amount of solid residue after combustion, making it heavy and ineffective for use in modern weapons. Modern armed forces have been using smokeless gunpowder based on nitrocellulose for more than 100 years. This substance can be obtained after the processing of cellulose from crops such as industrial hemp, cotton or wood. Although hemp pulp is suitable for short-range ammunition, for long-range artillery, cotton powder is the best raw material because it is lighter and more powerful.
Vira Borovyk, a senior researcher at the Institute of Climate-oriented Agriculture of the National Academy of Sciences, explains that cotton fiber consists of 95% cellulose. Before obtaining nitrocellulose, cotton is cleaned of impurities, after which cellulose is mixed with sulfuric and nitric acid. At the last stage of production, the obtained powder granules are dried and used for the production of projectile charges.
Despite the fact that cotton has not been grown in Ukraine for a long time, in May 2024 the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law simplifying the import of varieties of this plant from abroad. As part of the experiment, cotton has already been planted in the south of the country, in Odesa Oblast, which has a climate similar to Crimea, where cotton was grown in the past. So far, the volumes are small – only a few plots with an area of 10 hectares, where five imported varieties are planted. Ukrainian varieties also exist, but they were almost completely destroyed by the Russians in the Kherson region. However, some of the seeds were saved, and scientists are currently working on their recovery. Despite the first successes of this experiment, it is still too early to talk about the mass cultivation of cotton. Growing this crop can be economically unprofitable, and even if cotton can take root in other regions, suitable enterprises are needed for its processing. This process requires significant investment, time and technology improvement.
According to representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture, an experiment on growing cotton in Ukraine is needed to understand whether this crop is suitable for the Ukrainian climate and whether it can become a strategic raw material for industry. The first results were positive – the cotton was able to ripen, and the crop will now be sent for examination to determine whether the fiber is suitable for the production of gunpowder for long-range artillery. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, it was possible to obtain the first “boxes” of cotton, which indicates the possibility of its ripening in the Ukrainian climate. The crop is harvested in stages and samples are submitted for examination to the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Strategic Industries to determine whether the obtained fiber is suitable for the production of gunpowder for long-range artillery. One of the key requirements is the fiber length, which should be around 0.15 mm.
However, growing cotton remains more of an ecological experiment than an industrial project. According to experts, it is theoretically possible to sow up to 10 thousand hectares of cotton in Ukraine, but it is still too early to talk about mass cultivation and interest from the business side. The success of the experiment does not guarantee that the culture will be suitable for mass cultivation. Among the main challenges are the potential unprofitability of cultivation, the lack of processing facilities, and there is no certainty that cotton will take root in other regions of the country.
An additional factor is the abnormal heat of 2024, which may have helped the cotton to ripen, but does not bode well for stable harvests in the following years. According to Ihor Vishtak, a representative of Minagro, for more accurate forecasts, it is necessary to spend another year of experimental sowing on larger areas, after which it will be possible to plan industrial cultivation and determine how to cooperate with the state and business. Even if Ukraine receives a significant cotton crop, building the entire production cycle for gunpowder can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and this process will take more than one year.
However, growing raw materials is only the beginning. Hundreds of millions of dollars are needed to build the entire technological chain for gunpowder production. Over the past three years, Ukraine has received only one offer from a Western company to build a plant for the processing of nitrocellulose into powder worth 20 million euros. This plant could produce 600 tons of gunpowder per year, which would make it possible to produce 160,000 shells of 122 mm caliber. However, this is only the initial stage in the creation of a full-fledged gunpowder production.
Gunpowder factories are explosive facilities, making them potential targets for Russian missile strikes. The construction of such factories in Ukraine is also complicated by the need to import nitrocellulose from abroad. German concern Rheinmetall plans to build a factory for the production of ammunition and gunpowder in Ukraine, but the prospects of this project depend on many factors, such as the availability of orders and financing. The construction of such plants can take several years.
The production of ammunition components remains an open niche in the global market, but Europe’s dependence on Chinese nitrocellulose poses additional risks. More than 70% of the nitrocellulose used by European gunpowder factories is imported from China, which is a close partner of Russia. This forces the European Union to look for alternative ways of supply. Ukraine has the potential to produce gunpowder together with foreign partners, but building a full production cycle requires considerable effort, time and financial resources.
It should be noted that the company “Ukrainian armored vehicles” received a proposal from a Western company to build a plant for the processing of nitrocellulose into gunpowder. This project is estimated at 20 million euros, but only provides for the production of a limited amount of gunpowder – about 600 tons per year, which would be enough for the production of 160,000 shells of 122 mm caliber. This is only one of the stages in the cycle of gunpowder production, and it is far from the most difficult. If Ukrainian manufacturers had stable access to gunpowder and appropriate contracts from the state, the number of shells could increase by hundreds of thousands per year. However, the construction of such factories is not only an economic issue. They are potentially explosive objects, making them easy targets for Russian missile attacks. In addition, it is important to consider the complexity of logistics, because the nitrocellulose needed for production is often imported from abroad, which adds even more challenges to such an enterprise.
The war exposed a critical problem that should have been solved long before hostilities — the lack of own production of gunpowder. The fact that sufficient steps have not been taken in this direction for years is now costing Ukraine dearly. Dependence on the import of key raw materials undermines not only the economy, but also the country’s defense capability, because no amount of artillery shells makes sense without a sufficient number of gunpowder charges.
The launch of own production of gunpowder should have become a priority long before the war, but procrastination and insufficient attention to strategic needs now require quick and radical decisions. In the current conditions, when every day of struggle requires new resources, the absence of one’s own gunpowder industry is an unacceptable luxury. Right now, when the country is in a state of war, the establishment of production becomes not just an economic issue, but a matter of survival.
Oksana Ishchenko
