In the second quarter of 2025, Ukrainians significantly reduced the volume of purchases of cash US dollars, instead, the euro became the main currency for new savings. This reorientation is explained by the significant weakening of the dollar against the euro on the world currency markets. About this it is said in the July “Inflation Report” of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to the NBU, the population’s net demand for cash dollars fell to a record low in the second quarter — $0.1 billion against $1.9 billion in the first quarter. Demand for cash euros, in turn, decreased only slightly.
In total, net demand for foreign cash decreased to $0.8 billion, compared to $2.8 billion in the previous quarter. This is the lowest monthly reading since October 2023. At the same time, in the second quarter, the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar remained relatively stable and even strengthened by 0.6%. On the other hand, due to the weakening of the dollar at the global level, the hryvnia depreciated against the euro by 7.2%. It was these changes in exchange rates that became the key factor influencing the choice of the population.
Low demand for the cash dollar led to the fact that the spread between the cash and the official rate sometimes became negative – that is, the dollar could be bought cheaper at the money changers than at the official rate. In the conditions of reduced demand, the National Bank reduced the volume of currency sales on the interbank market to $8.1 billion (from $9.4 billion in the first quarter). The share of operations without the participation of the NBU increased to 54%, which indicates the stabilization of the market. As of the end of June, international reserves amounted to $45.1 billion.
The National Bank predicts that demand for the currency will remain elevated in 2025-2026 due to defense spending and imports, but will gradually decrease to $5 billion in 2027 due to reduced devaluation expectations and increased attractiveness of hryvnia instruments. A sharp change in the currency preferences of Ukrainians is a direct consequence of the processes on the global financial markets. As the NBU explains, the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the euro is derived from the euro-dollar pair in the world.
In recent months, the US dollar has lost ground on the international stage due to the actions of the Trump administration, including trade conflicts and growing budget deficits, as well as expectations of key Fed rate cuts. At the same time, the euro showed growth.
Ukrainians, observing the stability of the hryvnia against the dollar and its rapid weakening against the euro, made a pragmatic decision. The dollar no longer looked like a reliable tool to protect against depreciation against the background of the rise of the euro, which remains a common currency for savings and future expenses (travel, buying goods from the EU). As a result, demand shifted towards the currently stronger currency — the euro.
