Iran vs. Israel: the new “strange” war (SWOT analysis)

To understand the level of conflict, one must realize the full extent of mutual hatred between Jews and Arabs, because it has ancient historical roots, and currently it is not just high – it is exploding. We will not delve into the history, because it would be necessary to write voluminous material for this. To put it simply: the enmity between the Iranians and the Israelis has been going on for decades. Iran does not actually recognize or even consider Israel as a state, as well as the right of its population to exist at all. Of course, the provocation for the latest attack was the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, during which influential Iranian officers of the IRGC were killed. Iran promised “retaliation” and it came in the form of a massive air attack on Israel.

According to foreign media reports, a large number of Iranian military generals and nuclear scientists were killed during the conflict. In addition, Israeli cyber attacks have repeatedly hit military facilities, nuclear facilities, and civilian infrastructure throughout Iran. At the same time, his readiness to answer this indicated that there is a possibility of bringing the war with Israel out of the shadows. Even now, the Iranian military command, eager to demonstrate its strength, is afraid of starting a war with Israel, which they may not win.

As for Israel’s possible response, it could lead to an escalation of the conflict. Israel has great military power and the ability to respond to such an attack. Israel’s potential response could include counterattacks or even increased military operations against Iranian targets in Syria and elsewhere.

Regarding US involvement in the war: everything depends on their reaction to the escalation of the conflict, because they have strategic interests and an obligation to protect their allies, including Israel. However, they may be quite cautious in intervening in this confrontation to avoid further consequences.

In fact, the conflict between Iran and Israel is very strange because of the divergence in conclusions about the effectiveness of the attack. Israel and its allies claim that most of the targets were eliminated using their air defense systems. While Iran claims that the attack was more successful and lived up to Axis expectations. This inconsistency in the information and attitude of both sides regarding the results of the attack creates complete uncertainty and increases the tension in the states. As a result, this leads to the question of the further course of events and the possibility of an increasing conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as the possible impact on international politics and security.

After the IDF strike on the Iranian embassy and the prolonged fighting in the Gaza Strip, where Iran supports Hamas, Iran had a free choice in how to respond, including asymmetric and unexpected methods. However, a direct and rather inappropriate air strike was chosen. It is interesting that Iran warned about such “raids” in advance – a few days and a few hours before the attack, they announced the launch of missiles and drones. All of them approached Israel from 10-20 minutes to several hours, and most of the targets were shot down while still in the air.

Jerusalem’s defense strategy is based on advanced air defense systems: the city has three defense circles equipped with the latest technologies, which ensures the ability to defend against attacks without much difficulty. There is a fairly small list of other countries that could cope with such a threat better. Also, the Israelis have experience dealing with thousands of rockets from Gaza, whereas in this case there were only a few hundred.

So, a version emerges that Iran simply had to do “something” and “respond” in this way, just to save face in front of the Islamic world, but the state itself did not seek a full-scale escalation. Thus, the attack looked more like a formality than a real desire to harm Israel, certain political games are being played.

Forecasts regarding the further course of events

Perhaps we are witnessing an increase in the escalation of the conflict, but with some changes. Even if the US can convince Israel to refrain from the corresponding strikes, Iran will find other ways to do harm – by intensifying the fighting in Gaza, killing the leaders of Hezbollah and the IRGC, sabotage and terrorist attacks, and so on. The list is quite long and the war will continue in one form or another. Israel has found itself embroiled in the conflict in Gaza, which has a negative impact on its media image. Iran’s attack was an opportunity for Jerusalem to demonstrate its right to self-defense, but the West opposes the continuation of mutual strikes. Tehran also does not want a full-scale war, preferring to act only through its allies.

In this situation, Israel’s main strategy is to make the most of Iran’s attack to prepare an appropriate response and attract the attention of the international community. The US and its allies could also be involved in this conflict, and in the end – it could lead to a full-scale war in the Middle East with possible global consequences, but at the moment such a scenario is quite unlikely.

That is why the Iranian attack on Israel can be called a “strange war” – a lot of noise and news because of a small threat that may not even have serious consequences for states and international relations. What the development of events will be and whether it will affect the situation in the Middle East and world politics will become clear in the near future.

Summarizing the given facts, let’s make a brief SWOT analysis of the conflict between Iran and Israel

Strengths:

• military potential: Iran has a developed military base, in particular, missile and artillery forces that can be used to attack targets in Israel;
• geographical location: Iran is relatively close to Israel, which makes it possible to strike targets in Israel from a long distance.

Weak sides:

• Israel’s potential response could be very strong and effective;
• international reaction and possible consequences for Iran of such action;
• revealing the limitations of Iran’s offensive ability, because the vast majority of its drones and missiles were shot down.

Features:

• support from other countries that now perceive Israel as a threat, returning the world’s favor to that country, even though it has been increasingly criticized for excessive brutality against the Palestinians;
• the possibility of forcing Israel to react and lose international support by responding to aggression.

Threats:

• Israel’s potential response could lead to an escalation of the conflict between the countries;
• new Western sanctions against Iran;
• The US can directly advocate for its ally Israel;
• Iranian proxies may become even more violent and belligerent;
• even more rapprochement of Iran with China and Russia;
• the production of nuclear weapons by Iran, if it cannot defend itself against Israel with conventional weapons;
• provocation of war in the Middle East.

How the conflict between Iran and Israel can affect Ukraine

Economic consequences: the escalation of the conflict may lead to an increase in oil and gas prices, which may negatively affect the economy of Ukraine due to increased energy dependence and rising energy prices.

Security and stability: an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to an escalation of the geopolitical situation in the world and increase risks to security and stability in Ukraine due to possible consequences for the world order and the reaction of other countries.

Diplomatic consequences: Ukraine may find itself in a situation where it will have to choose between supporting one of the parties to the conflict or adopting a neutral position, which may have consequences for its international relations.

International relations: Ukraine’s response to events in the Middle East may affect its relations with other world players, which may affect its international status and the extent of providing financial and other support during the war

Therefore, the conflict between Iran and Israel can have far-reaching consequences for both Ukraine and other countries, so it is important to carefully observe the development of the situation, analyze the events and draw conclusions.