For millions of Ukrainians who, after the outbreak of a full-scale war, found themselves in the countries of the European Union, air travel remains one of the key ways to quickly reach their families, change their country of residence, fly to work or return after temporary trips. Because of this, any disruptions in the aviation fuel market in Europe go far beyond the scope of an industry topic, as they affect the lives, mobility and expenses of people whose safety and life plans have long depended on transport stability in the EU.
Air travel may cease in the EU in the coming weeks
European officials have warned of the risk of a shortage of aviation fuel in the coming weeks. The reason is the escalation in the Middle East, which has hit the supply of energy carriers, and the consequences may be more expensive tickets, reduced flights and new difficulties for passengers on the eve of the summer season.
A massive jet fuel shortage threatens to halt air travel in the EU in the coming weeks, with supplies expected to last for about a month and a half. As Al Jazeera reports, the crisis is being caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has effectively disrupted energy supplies.
Supply chains have been so disrupted that Europe’s aviation market is at risk of a sharp reduction in flights in the near future. In response, Brussels is developing an action plan to support the aviation industry and is preparing to use its own oil refineries at full capacity.
Why Europe is at risk
The EU’s vulnerability is explained by its high dependence on external supplies. Europe receives about 75% of its aviation fuel from the Middle East, so any disruption in this direction quickly affects supplies, prices and airport operations.
The situation was complicated by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after which aviation fuel prices went up, and market participants began to talk about possible disruptions in flight schedules. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said: “Europe has about six weeks of aviation fuel left.”
What plan is the European Commission preparing
On April 22, the European Commission plans to make proposals aimed at saving the aviation industry. The package is centered around three steps: a pan-European mapping of refining capacity, full use and maintenance of existing refining capacity, and increased direct supply of aviation fuel.
The rationale for these actions is to understand more quickly where Europe has room for increased production, how to reallocate existing resources, and how to reduce dependence on volatile external routes.
Despite attempts to find alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies, traders doubt that imports from the US and Africa will be able to fully cover the losses. An additional problem remains the storage structure: fuel consortia serving airports do not always have long-term stocks, and a significant number of airports do not hold large reserves.
The state of European refining, which has been declining in recent years due to falling domestic oil production and the shift to cleaner energy sources, is also under particular pressure. According to the International Energy Agency, many European refineries capable of producing jet fuel are operating far from their maximum capacity.
Even the largest carriers are already talking about the instability in the market.
“Our suppliers are changing their forecast periods and are no longer willing to give a forecast for a period of time that goes beyond one month,” said Lufthansa’s technical director Grazia Vittadini.
How it is already hitting the aviation market
Because of the jump in fuel prices, European airlines have already warned of possible ticket price increases, cancellations of some flights and temporary suspension of flights. The International Energy Agency predicts that by June Europe will face a shortage of jet fuel if the region can replace only half of the volumes that previously came from the Middle East.
Signs of pressure are already visible in the operational decisions of carriers. Lufthansa announced the closure of its regional division CityLine, citing a sharp increase in fuel costs and staff strikes.
Aviation operates on a special highly refined fuel based on kerosene, which requires separate production, transport and storage solutions. The most common brands remain Jet A and Jet A-1, while Jet B is used in more difficult climatic conditions. Due to such technical constraints, the market cannot easily switch to new sources in the short term, even if a political decision to do so is made quickly.
Additional risk remains around the Strait of Hormuz, where the further shipping regime depends on political agreements. Negotiations may drag on, while the European fuel market is already operating in conditions of increased nervousness.
What does this mean for Ukrainian refugees
For Ukrainians living in EU countries under temporary protection, this situation means, first of all, more expensive flights, fewer flight options and a higher risk of sudden changes in their schedules. Under these conditions, it is more difficult to plan trips between European countries, return after visiting relatives, look for cheaper routes for relocation or urgently fly out for personal reasons.
A separate impact will be on those who combine life in different countries, work seasonally or are forced to fly frequently due to documents, medical treatment or family circumstances. If airlines start to massively reduce flights and ticket prices go up, the mobility of Ukrainian refugees in Europe will become more expensive, more difficult and much less predictable.
