Forecast of the dollar and euro exchange rate in Ukraine for March 2026: practical advice from a financial analyst

March 2026 will be difficult for the currency and commodity markets due to a combination of several factors of global instability. Against the backdrop of a new war in the Middle East, which has already involved almost all the world’s leading countries, and a general geopolitical crisis, the markets will demonstrate high volatility. In addition, the two largest economic players — the USA and China — have not yet been able to agree on a real and effective compromise, which creates conditions for further escalation of economic and military tensions between their allies and supporters. In this regard, Ukrainians, like other participants in world markets, find themselves at increased risk of fluctuations in the exchange rate and prices for gold and energy.

Forecast for oil, the euro/dollar pair and gold

Financial analyst Oleksiy Kozyrev emphasizes that the war between the US and Israel with Iran will last throughout March, with the most active military actions and mutual strikes expected in the first 2−2.5 weeks. This, in his opinion, provokes high oil and gold prices and significantly affects the behavior of the euro/dollar pair. Even taking into account US measures to curb the growth of oil prices, in March BRENT oil prices will remain high – within $ 74-110 per barrel, with a peak of volatility in the period from March 16 to 20.

This will be facilitated by a combination of military and economic factors: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian military, as well as the meetings of the US Federal Reserve (March 17-18) and the ECB (March 19) on interest rates. Meetings of regulators traditionally provoke volatility in all markets, from currency to raw materials and stock markets, and against the backdrop of the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, the synergy of all risks increases fluctuations in quotes.

In the European Union, the situation is still relatively predictable. Even with the threat of rising oil and gas prices, which increases inflationary processes, Kozyrev predicts that the ECB will leave rates within 2−2.4% per annum. In the US, the situation is more complicated: annual inflation for January-February was recorded at 2.4%, which exceeds analysts’ forecasts. This is happening against the backdrop of stable domestic demand and moderate fiscal policy, but without taking into account the impact of the US war with Iran.

In the first days of the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar began to strengthen against the euro – from 1.18−1.17 to 1.16 and even lower. In the European Union, there are risks of accelerating inflation and worsening economic indicators due to rising energy prices. The US is experiencing a situational economic upswing due to increased government military orders and increased demand for oil and gas, which is beneficial to energy companies in foreign trade operations, but this will soon affect the domestic consumer.

According to Kozyrev’s forecast, the Fed will lower rates by 0.25% per annum to 3.25−3.5% in March, with the prospect of a further reduction to 3−3.25% by the fall of 2026. This decision is due to a combination of the economic situation, inflationary risks, and domestic political pressure. As a result, the corridor of the euro/dollar pair in March will be 1.149−1.178, with a peak volatility of 1−1.3 cents per euro in the second decade of the month, and in the first and third decades, fluctuations will be smaller — 0.2−0.7 cents.

At the same time, gold prices will remain high and volatile due to geopolitical risks and meetings of regulators: the predicted corridor is $5,040−5,570 per ounce, with maximum fluctuations in the second decade of March, especially during the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold continues to be bought by private investors, central banks and large investment funds.

The dollar and euro exchange rate in Ukraine

As the financial analyst notes, the hryvnia exchange rate will be influenced by three main factors: the state of the budget revenue and expenditure, the size of the deficit and sources of its coverage, the volume of the National Bank’s reserve requirements and interventions, as well as the behavior of the population and business in buying and selling currency.

In addition, international aid will have a positive impact. On March 3, the IMF transferred the first tranche to Ukraine under the new four-year EFF program in the amount of $1.5 billion, and the EU confirmed the allocation of a loan of 90 billion euros. This will allow the government to plan budget expenditures in March more calmly, and the National Bank to maintain a high level of reserves.

According to Kozyrev’s forecast, the National Bank will spend $2.9−3.4 billion to support the exchange rate in March, while the expected daily interbank volumes will amount to $260−290 million. The peak of interbank transactions is expected from March 16 to 20 and at the end of the month, when businesses will close settlements for the month and quarter. The main sellers of currency are the National Bank, farmers and partly the IT sector, buyers are state structures and energy traders.

On the cash market, the tendency for the population to buy currency more than it sells will persist, but will not be critical – $5−45 million daily. At the same time, the working spread in exchangers will be as follows: dollar 20−30 kopecks, euro 20−50 kopecks. Price tags on the cash market will be 15-40 kopecks higher than the interbank market.

Analyst’s advice

For those who are in Ukraine, Oleksiy Kozyrev advises keeping cash savings as follows: up to 60% in hryvnia instruments (government bonds, deposits, bonds of reliable issuers), up to 40% in foreign exchange instruments (foreign exchange government bonds, deposits, cash), with about 50% of the currency portion in dollars, 40-45% in euros, and 5-10% in Swiss francs or gold.

For those who live abroad, Kozyrev advises: up to 60% in local currency (deposits or bonds of reliable issuers), up to 40% in dollars and euros (US Treasury bonds, deposits, shares of global companies). Savings proportions should be reviewed at least once every 2-3 months, taking into account changes in the geopolitical and military situation.

The analyst emphasizes that during this period, geopolitical and military events determine the rules of the game in the financial markets, and asset diversification helps reduce the risks of losses and get through a difficult period without significant financial losses.

“In addition, given the tense situation in the world, I would now definitely review the specified proportions of my cash savings at least once every 2-3 months. And I would make appropriate adjustments, depending on the situation at that time.

Investors should also remember that currently geopolitical and military events “dictate” the rules of the game for the economy, which makes the currency and financial market very dynamic and unstable. Therefore, only asset diversification will help to avoid losses in this situation and successfully pass all the tests of such a difficult period,” – sums up Oleksiy Kozyrev.