Personnel famine in Ukraine: consequences of war, mobilization and emigration

How did the mobilization affect the labor market?

Back in July 2022, the ex-Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov during the conference, he stated that up to 70,000 people serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, up to 60,000 border guards, up to 90,000 in the National Guard, and up to 100,000 in the National Police. At the beginning of 2024, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi stated, that currently the Ukrainian army has approximately 880,000 servicemen. Almost all of these people worked as specialists in various fields, but after the start of a full-scale war, they went to defend their homes.

Of course, the mobilization led to the removal of a significant number of able-bodied people from the labor market, which caused a shortage of personnel in many areas of the domestic economy. This applies to such industries as construction, transport, agriculture, medicine, education and others. In addition, many women had to take on additional obligations related to childcare, home and work, because men went to the front. All this led to the growth of gender inequality and caused new social challenges.

Emigration

Millions of Ukrainians who left their homes after the start of the war have been living abroad for the third year already. Center for Economic Strategy (CES) conducted research for the third time to find out who these people are, in what conditions they live and whether they plan to return, as well as how their non-return may affect the Ukrainian economy and demography. For this study of these issues, data from a survey of Ukrainian refugees conducted by the research agency Info were used Sapiens was commissioned by the CES, within the framework of which three waves of surveys were conducted. In the last wave (December 2023 – January 2024), 1,000 Ukrainians living abroad (except those living in Russia or Belarus) agreed to answer the researchers’ questions.

The survey results are not optimistic: fewer and fewer Ukrainians want to return home and more of them assimilate in the countries of their temporary stay. How can you change their point of view?

According to CES calculations, at the end of January 2024, there were 4.9 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. About 3.3 million of them crossed the western border of Ukraine. The largest number of Ukrainians left at the beginning of the Great War: in March 2022 alone, 3 million more people left Ukraine than entered Ukraine through the western borders. Most of them chose the countries of the European Union, in particular Germany (1.3 million), Poland (950 thousand) and the Czech Republic (380 thousand). Only in 2023, the difference between the number of departures and returns amounted to 160 thousand people.

A study by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) shows that the vast majority of refugees are women (65%). The share of children is decreasing, because many families managed to send them to educational institutions abroad. Residents of the eastern and southern regions, which suffered the most from Russian aggression, left the most. It is alarming that 70% of the interviewed refugees have higher education. This is a loss for Ukrainian intellectual and professional potential. About half of the refugees are already employed abroad. Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Great Britain offer the greatest employment opportunities.

Central Committee predicts that 1.4 to 2.3 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. This will lead to the loss of qualified personnel and a decrease in the GDP of Ukraine by 3.9-6.3% annually. In addition, the demographic situation is deteriorating. Ukraine is losing young and able-bodied people, which negatively affects the country’s long-term development prospects.

Solutions

The situation with Ukrainian emigration is critical. The authorities must act decisively to prevent a demographic and economic crisis. Comprehensive measures are needed to stimulate the return of refugees:

• Security guarantee.
• Creation of new jobs with decent wages.
• Small and medium business support.
• Improvement of living conditions in Ukraine.
• Introduction of state programs to stimulate return
• It is also important to maintain contact with the Ukrainian diaspora abroad and develop programs that would encourage compatriots to return and help rebuild the country.

Joint efforts of the government, business and civil society are necessary to preserve the number of Ukrainian people in our country and create conditions for their return. At the same time, one of the main tasks should be the revival of the economy, the creation of enterprises and, accordingly, jobs.

What professions are most lacking in Ukraine?

The number of specialists in Ukraine is decreasing every year. This applies to both skilled workers and specialists with higher education. Analysts of the labor market in Ukraine note an alarming trend: the chronic lack of qualified specialists on vacancies is becoming an increasingly acute problem, as most of them have already found work abroad.

According to the study of personnel portals, in particular – Work.ua, it is increasingly difficult for employers to find candidates who meet their requirements. This situation forces companies to look for new approaches to search and employment. One of the key strategies is expanding the pool of potential candidates. Companies are becoming more open to working with people of all ages, backgrounds and backgrounds. This applies, in particular, to veterans and people with disabilities. Employers are realizing that these categories of people can have valuable skills and experience that can benefit their business. In October 2023, the business actively used salary increases to attract and retain qualified personnel. The average salary in the country for this month increased by 3% and reached UAH 18,000.

The image shows a graph illustrating the dynamics of the number of vacancies in Ukraine from January 2022 to January 2024. The largest increase in vacancies is observed in the first months of 2022, when many people lost their jobs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, the rate of growth in the number of vacancies slowed somewhat, but still remained positive. In January 2024, the number of vacancies reached its maximum for the entire period from 2022. It is important to note that the graph does not show the dynamics of the number of job seekers. Therefore, it is not possible to unequivocally state whether there is a shortage of personnel on the labor market.

According to a study by Work.ua, new trends have appeared in the labor market of Ukraine over the past year: an increase in demand for professions related to defense and security. This applies to such professions as military, medical, police, rescuers and others. Also, a decrease in demand for professions related to tourism and entertainment. This is due to the fact that many people stopped traveling and visiting entertainment venues because of the war. More and more Ukrainians started looking for work online, because most people had to work from home because of the war. In addition, employers are increasingly looking for qualified IT specialists. Many Ukrainian IT companies have moved their operations abroad or expanded their presence in the online environment.

Many people who lost their jobs because of the war had to retrain and learn new professions.

The number of speech therapists is decreasing in Ukraine. The situation with speech therapists is the worst in the country. Over the past year, the number of speech therapists has significantly decreased, which has led to the fact that 500 children with speech disorders do not have the opportunity to receive the necessary help. Unfortunately, accurate statistics regarding the reduction in the number of speech therapists over the past year are currently unavailable. However, according to the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, in 2021, 7,748 speech therapists worked in preschool and general secondary education institutions. This is 10% less than in 2020.

Why is there a shortage of speech therapists in Ukraine?

• Low salary: many potential speech therapists choose other professions where they are offered better working conditions.
• Unfavorable working conditions: some speech therapists face work overload, lack of resources and low levels of social support.
• Lack of incentives for professional development: Not all speech therapists have the opportunity to improve their skills and knowledge due to lack of funding or available training programs.

The shortage of speech therapists is also affected by the growing number of children with speech disorders. According to information of the Educational Ombudsman of Ukraine, over the past 5 years, the number of children with special educational needs (SEN) has increased almost 2.5 times – from 4,655 pupils in preschool education institutions in 2019 to 11,285 pupils in 2024, and more than doubled – from 18,643 pupils with OOP in general secondary education institutions in 2019 to 40,354 students in 2024. That is why the workload on employees of educational institutions, including speech therapists, who work with children with special educational needs, increases every year.

In addition, the state does not allocate enough funds to equip offices and pay speech therapists. Often, educational programs do not meet modern needs and do not prepare specialists for work in real conditions. There is no clear vision for the development of speech therapy in Ukraine, which leads to inefficient use of resources and fragmentation of services. The war led to the migration of speech therapists from Ukraine, where they have much better working conditions, which worsened the shortage of specialists.

A large number of children affected by the war need speech therapy, which further burdens the existing system. It is important to note that the shortage of speech therapists is not only a Ukrainian problem. This problem is observed in many countries of the world. However, in Ukraine it has a particularly acute character due to the above-mentioned reasons.

Also, the war led to the fact that many vacancies appeared on the labor market that were not in demand before. This applies to such professions as: truck drivers, construction workers, agricultural workers, workers in plants and factories. These professions do not always require high qualifications, but they offer stable earnings. This can be a good option for people looking for work after the war.

According to a study by Work.ua, IT specialists, doctors, drivers, construction workers and agricultural workers have been the most in demand over the last year. Online professions such as web developers, SMM specialists and copywriters are in growing demand.

The total number of vacancies was 102,750. The most vacancies are located in five regions: Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv, Odesa and Kharkiv.

The war made significant adjustments in the lives of Ukrainians, in particular in the labor market. Many people lost their jobs due to hostilities, while others were forced to change their field of activity. At the same time, the Armed Forces need new personnel to protect the country. In order to facilitate the job search and attract more people to the ranks of the Armed Forces, in December 2023, a military recruiting project was launched on Work.ua. During the two months of its existence, more than 2,400 vacancies were placed by 432 divisions.

It should be noted that the number of vacancies for the Armed Forces is growing rapidly, military units need specialists from various fields, because in addition to combat, there are also many non-combat vacancies. The most offers are in the categories “Security, safety”, “Transport, auto business”, “Telecommunications and communication”, “Medicine, pharmaceuticals” and “Work specialties, production”. Another 73% of vacancies do not require work experience, which makes them accessible to a wide range of people. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine offer work not only to men, but also to women. The gender balance among searchers is almost the same: 51% men and 49% women.

The most active in military recruiting are people aged 35 to 44. However, there are many jobs that interest both young and older people. Residents of all regions of Ukraine actively respond to vacancies in the Armed Forces. It is important to note that the competition for vacancies in the Armed Forces is not lower than in the labor market in general. In January 2024, job offers from military units received 20,519 responses from job seekers.

In general, the shortage of personnel has negative consequences for the economy of Ukraine, it leads to an increase in the prices of goods and services, a decrease in the quality of products, and a reduction in the rate of economic growth.