Political roulette: why the government’s reshuffle does not make most Ukrainians optimistic
The majority of Ukrainians no longer believe that changes in the government can bring real positive change to the country. This signals a strikingly deep level of mistrust that has taken root in society after years of unfulfilled promises and constant crises. Scepticism about the government’s ability to solve existing problems has become an everyday reality, as with each new reshuffle in the political arena, citizens’ expectations are increasingly shattered by the cold wall of inaction, ineffective and sometimes bizarre decisions, and corruption on the part of officials. People are no longer seeing the point in political processes, losing faith that new policies or changes in government can affect the real situation in the country. Can a country move forward effectively if its people do not believe in those who lead it?
Level of trust in the government
The level of trust in the government in Ukraine is an indicator that has undergone serious changes in recent years, especially since the outbreak of a full-scale war. While at the beginning of Russia’s military aggression, many Ukrainians rallied around the government, more or less supporting its actions, the situation now looks completely different. According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), 74% of Ukrainians believe that recent personnel changes in the government will not lead to significant changes in its activities. Only 12% of citizens expressed hope that the government’s performance will improve, while 6% believe that the situation may even worsen.
Recently, there have been changes in the Government of Ukraine: some government officials have been dismissed and others appointed. In your opinion, how will this affect the Government’s activities?
The regional specificity of the results of this survey is also interesting. Residents of the eastern regions are the most hopeful for positive changes (17%), which may be due to the specifics of local problems and expectations for their quick resolution. In the southern part of Ukraine, 14% of citizens also expect improvements, while in the central regions – only 12%. Residents of the western regions are the least optimistic, with only 9% of respondents expressing hope for positive changes.
Attitudes towards changes in the Government in the regional dimension
Thus, the results of the survey show a high level of scepticism among the population and a deep distrust of the effectiveness of government decisions; most Ukrainians do not see any real tools for improvement in the actions of government officials. People are tired of constant promises and discussions of reforms that do not bring tangible results. Distrust in the government deepens with each crisis that the country fails to overcome quickly and effectively.
In addition, these results highlight an important trend – Ukrainian society is gradually losing faith in the effectiveness of public administration. While at the beginning of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian government received much higher ratings, the situation has changed dramatically. According to a KIIS survey conducted in 2023, the share of those who trusted the government in 2022 decreased from 52% to 26%, while distrust increased from 19% to 44%.
As we can see, personnel changes in the government, which could look like a way to update the management system and ‘let off steam’ in society, did not have the expected effect. The population does not demonstrate enthusiasm for the new faces in the government, but there is no categorical rejection either – this is likely due to the fact that not enough time has passed to fully assess their work. However, judging by the public reaction, these reshuffles look more like a formality than a real step towards improving governance processes.
Given that elections in a time of war remain impossible, reshuffling of personnel becomes one of the few tools available to the political leadership. However, the lack of significant enthusiasm on the part of citizens is indicative of a deeper systemic issue – distrust not only of individual politicians but also of the institutions of government as a whole.
It is also worth noting that society supports criticism of the government, but expects it to remain within constructive limits. Ukrainians are striving for unity and cohesion, especially in times of war, when everyone should feel a shared responsibility for the defence of the country. But at the same time, there is a tangible demand for real work and effective solutions that will bring tangible results, not just another reshuffle or temporary measures.
Sociologists also note an interesting trend in attitudes towards the coalition government. At the end of 2023, when respondents were asked to assess the prospects of a government that included representatives of different political forces (Servant of the People, European Solidarity, Fatherland, Voice), 37% were positive and 19% were negative. However, when it comes to a broader unification of different patriotic forces, including those outside the parliament, the level of support increases. This indicates that citizens want to see cohesion in the actions of the authorities, but specific political forces often lack sufficient support.
Reasons for the low level of trust in the government
The reasons for the low level of trust in the government in Ukraine are deeply rooted in the country’s historical and social context. Dissatisfaction with the authorities, scepticism about political decisions, and loss of faith in the government’s ability to effectively address pressing issues have become commonplace reflections of society. The current situation is no exception – citizens continue to express doubts about the government’s ability to lead the country out of the crisis. What are the reasons for this phenomenon, which has been causing irritation among Ukrainians for many years?
Political appointments and lack of professionalism
One of the key reasons for the low level of trust in the government in Ukraine is the lack of professionalism among officials. Systematic appointments to positions based on nepotism, connections or even buying positions have become the norm in Ukrainian politics. This practice results in key managerial positions being filled by random people who do not have sufficient experience or competence to effectively manage the state. As a result, important decisions are made by non-professionals, which reduces the efficiency of government agencies and undermines public trust.
At the same time, it is virtually impossible for true professionals with the knowledge, experience and potential to improve the situation in the country to make their way to the top. The corrupt system weeds out those who could bring real change and benefit to the state, favouring ‘their’ people. This not only harms public administration, but also creates a situation where potentially strong professionals lose motivation to work for the good of the country, as their professionalism is ignored in favour of connections and money. This situation creates a vicious circle of incompetence, with random people in the government making decisions that only deepen crises. This increases public scepticism, as citizens see that appointments are not guided by the interests of the state, but by the personal benefits of political elites.
Personnel changes in the government often look like political theatre, where new faces do not bring new approaches. Citizens increasingly believe that changes in government officials are just a way to demonstrate the government’s alleged intention to change the situation for the better, but the real problems remain unresolved. The constant rotation of ministers without a change in their prime minister, dismissals for ineffective work and sometimes for crimes, without reports and punishment for those responsible – all this creates a sense of anger, hopelessness, instability and futility in society. People are tired of promises that ‘new faces’ will bring better solutions, when in reality they see no dramatic improvements.
The historical baggage of corruption
Ukraine has a long history of fighting corruption, which has permeated all levels of government – from local government to national institutions – for years. Constant scandals related to corruption schemes, the lack of real court sentences for high-ranking officials and systematic laundering of budget funds have created the impression among citizens that the fight against corruption is only a show for external observers, not a real government policy. Every new government promises to fight corruption, but without tangible results, this turns into empty words that only increase distrust. This is especially cynical in times of war.
Lack of quick results of reforms
Since the start of the European integration course and the war with Russia, the government has embarked on large-scale reforms, but most of them are still under discussion or are being implemented too slowly. Changes in the judicial and law enforcement systems, the fight against oligarchs, education and healthcare reforms – these areas remain extremely problematic. Citizens are disappointed that the reforms are either not tangible at all at the level of the average person or have only partial positive results. The absence of rapid changes in key sectors that directly affect the quality of life creates the impression that the government is unable to solve real problems.
Lack of transparency and communication
The lack of clear communication between the government and society is another key factor in low trust. Government decisions are often perceived as disconnected from reality, and the government itself is seen as a closed structure acting in its own interests. The population does not understand the motivation behind many reforms or management decisions, and this causes irritation. Insufficient communication leads to fakes, conspiracy theories and manipulations that further undermine the government’s credibility. People want transparent, accessible and logical explanations for decisions made at the state level, but they do not always get them.
Social and economic problems
Long-term economic crises, rising poverty, unemployment and unresolved social protection issues have contributed to a general level of distrust in the government. Ukrainians do not see the government’s actions as an effective strategy for overcoming socio-economic problems. Rising prices for food, utilities and fuel at a time when many families are losing stable income due to the war only increases frustration with the government. In such circumstances, any decisions affecting people’s wallets are met with a large dose of scepticism, even if they are intended to improve the situation in the long term.
Dissatisfaction with the war and a sense of injustice
The situation with the war in Ukraine has further exacerbated distrust of the government. Many citizens feel that the government does not always act quickly, efficiently and fairly in defence and mobilisation. There is a growing number of complaints about an unequal approach to mobilisation, with some citizens being forced to go to the frontline while others are able to avoid service. This sense of social injustice undermines trust in state institutions and the government as a whole.
Distrust in institutions in general
The problem of low levels of trust in the government is also linked to a general crisis of trust in state institutions. The judiciary, law enforcement agencies, and state regulators are all perceived by citizens as corrupt or inefficient. This creates the impression that the government, even with good intentions, cannot achieve real results due to the lack of systemic support and the general weakness of institutions.
The low level of trust in the government in Ukraine is a multilayered problem that includes a complex set of causes, and the level of scepticism towards the government continues to grow.
The level of trust in other state bodies and civil society organisations
According to a survey released by the Razumkov Centre on 16 October, Ukrainians demonstrate the greatest trust in those institutions that ensure security, save lives and actively help in the fight against the aggressor. The Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in the first place in terms of trust, with 91.5% of respondents trusting them. This is not surprising, as the Armed Forces have become a symbol of the nation’s heroism and resilience in the war with Russia. The army is perceived as the main guarantor of national security, and citizens are ready to provide it with maximum support, even in the most difficult moments.
The State Emergency Service (83%) and volunteer organisations (80%) also received a high level of trust. These structures are involved in saving lives and rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by the war on a daily basis, making their work extremely important for society. Volunteer units are trusted by 79.5% of respondents – people who often joined the defence of the country at the call of their hearts and receive well-deserved respect from their fellow citizens.
Other law enforcement agencies also enjoy significant support. For example, the National Guard of Ukraine is trusted by 74% of Ukrainians, and the State Border Guard Service by 70%. This demonstrates the high level of respect for institutions that are actively involved in the defence of the country on the frontline. The Security Service of Ukraine has 64% support, and the Ministry of Defence – 63%, which also demonstrates a certain level of trust in the governing bodies of the defence sector. The Church, as a traditional moral authority, received 62.5% support, and NGOs – 59%, which underlines the important role of civil society in dealing with the challenges of war.
In contrast, other state institutions show a lower level of trust. For example, the National Bank of Ukraine is more trusted than distrusted – 50% vs. 39%, and the National Police is 50% trusted vs. 41% distrusted. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trusted by 48.5% of respondents, while 44.5% express distrust. This shows that while the president remains a highly influential figure, his activities also cause controversy among the population.
However, the most problematic are the political institutions. The Verkhovna Rada has a catastrophically low level of trust – 78.5% of respondents do not trust it. The situation is even worse with officials (77% distrust) and political parties (73.5% distrust). At the same time, according to a study conducted by the Razumkov Centre, 72.5% of Ukrainians do not trust the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. The judiciary and the prosecutor’s office are also heavily criticised, receiving 70% and 63% distrust respectively.
Interestingly, even the media, which has a significant impact on public opinion, also faces distrust: 48% of respondents do not trust the media, while 45% still have some trust in them. Trade unions received 46% of support, while 26% of respondents do not trust these organisations.
The low level of trust in political parties is particularly alarming. Only 15% of Ukrainians trust these structures, which indicates a general crisis in the political system. However, when asked whether respondents see a political force that could be entrusted with power in the post-war period, 27% answered in the affirmative. At the same time, 47% of respondents believe that a new political force that can be trusted should emerge from the military. This demonstrates the deep desire of society to see people in power who have participated in the defence of the country and have earned trust through their real actions.
Another 24% of respondents believe that a new force can come from the volunteer community, which also enjoys significant support among the population. 21% of respondents expect new leaders to emerge from the humanitarian or technical intelligentsia, 19% from civil society organisations, and only 17% believe that existing political parties can provide such leadership.
These survey results underscore a deep distrust of the current political structures and officials. Ukrainians increasingly want to see those in power who are directly involved in the defence of the country and have demonstrated their commitment to national interests. Society needs new leaders who can break down corruption schemes, build a transparent governance system and restore public trust in state institutions.
Consequences of low levels of trust in government
A low level of trust in government can have devastating consequences for a state, and it is not just a matter of alienating the population from the authorities. When citizens do not believe in the government’s ability to govern effectively, it creates deep social divisions and brings to the surface potentially dangerous trends that can undermine statehood.
First and foremost, distrust of the government creates an environment in which demand for alternative, often radical or populist solutions is growing. People frustrated by the inaction or corruption of officials begin to support those who offer simple but dangerous solutions to problems, ranging from flouting the law to the complete destabilisation of the political system.
In such circumstances, there is a risk of strengthening authoritarian tendencies. When the state loses its legitimacy in the eyes of citizens and existing democratic mechanisms seem ineffective, public sentiment can quickly shift towards support for a strong hand – leaders who promise rapid change at any cost. This is dangerous, as such tendencies can undo years of democratic gains, restrict rights and freedoms, and move the political system towards dictatorship under the guise of stabilisation.
In addition, low levels of trust in the government block the possibility of critical reforms. Without trust in the state, any changes, even the most necessary ones, are perceived by society as another manipulation or attempt to profit from resources. This creates a situation where even a well-intentioned government becomes paralysed in its activities. Popular support is a necessary element of successful reforms, and its absence makes any initiative doomed to failure.
Another danger is the growth of social apathy. Citizens who no longer believe in the government often withdraw from any form of political participation, losing interest in elections, civic initiatives and even protests. Such apathy is dangerous because society becomes less capable of self-defence in the face of possible crises or external aggression. Without active citizenship, the state becomes vulnerable to external influences and manipulations.
Finally, a low level of trust in the government undermines the internal cohesion of the nation. At a time when Ukraine is fighting a war on several fronts – both external and internal – the loss of trust in government institutions undermines the very foundations of the state. At the same time, distrust fuels rumours and disinformation, which weakens society’s ability to unite in the face of threats. Such a situation can be fatal for a country, especially in a prolonged war, when success depends not only on military strength but also on the internal resilience of the nation.
Thus, the low level of trust in the government is not just a political problem – it is a direct threat to national security, stability and development. If left unchecked, Ukraine may face challenges that will undermine its ability to continue to exist as a strong, independent and democratic state.
