The annual inflation rate in Ukraine in October decreased to 10.9% compared to 11.9% in September. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices increased by 0.9% per month, and core inflation was 10.2% in annual terms and 0.6% in monthly terms. This was reported by Forbes.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose the most in price — by an average of 1.6% per month. The leaders in growth were eggs (+11.0%) and vegetables (+10.4%). Prices for lard, grain products, milk, fish, sunflower oil, soft drinks, bread, butter, meat and cheese increased by 1.0–7.1%. At the same time, fruit fell by 2.6%, and sugar, rice and pasta by 0.2–2.6%.
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 1.5%, mainly due to a 2.2% increase in the cost of cigarettes. Among other categories, a significant increase was observed in the clothing and footwear sector – by 7.9% (clothing +8.6%, footwear +7.1%). Educational services rose by 12.1%, in particular higher education – by 16.3%, secondary education – by 8.2%. Transport services increased in price by 0.1% due to a 0.6% increase in the price of road transport, although rail travel became cheaper by 5%.
In 2024, the National Bank of Ukraine revised its inflation forecast several times, but each time underestimated its actual level. Initially, annual inflation was expected to be 8.6%, in April the forecast was lowered to 8.2%, and in October it was raised to 9.7%, when the actual indicator had already reached 8.3%. At the end of the year, inflation reached 12%, which significantly exceeded all official estimates.
Due to the systematic underestimation of the rate of price growth, the NBU was forced to significantly change its monetary policy. The initial plans for a gradual reduction in the discount rate in 2025 were replaced by a more cautious course: if earlier there was talk of its softening, then by December the regulator switched to raising the rate, effectively reversing the previous strategy.
