Invisible influence: the Ukrainian community deciding the fate of U.S. presidents and beyond
The Ukrainian community in the USA, although not the largest, has long ceased to be a mere observer in the political life of the country. She has become an active player who can significantly influence the course of the elections. The electoral system of the United States, where every vote is worth its weight in gold, especially in “shaky” states, makes the votes of Ukrainians important and even decisive in election races. Historically, Ukrainians in America sought security and a better life, and over time gained political votes that can change the fate of not only the United States, but also global support for Ukraine in wartime conditions.
However, the importance of Ukrainians is not limited to presidential elections. Influence on local elections, the election of congressmen and senators – all this makes the Ukrainian community an important part of the American political system. Therefore, many American politicians, seeking to attract support, actively develop pro-Ukrainian initiatives in order to win the trust of voters of Ukrainian origin.
The role of the Ukrainian community in politics and elections in the USA
The first appearance of a Ukrainian on American soil is connected with an extraordinary story worthy of a novel or an adventure film. Ivan Bohdan, the first Ukrainian emigrant to America, was part of the Jamestown colony as early as 1608. He sailed there with the famous captain John Smith, whom he met through a rather dramatic incident. Smith, as you know, fought against the Ottomans, was captured and escaped through the lands of Ukraine and neighboring countries. One can only imagine what exciting adventures their lives were filled with before they reached the shores of America.
However, if we talk about the real wave of Ukrainian immigration to the United States, it began much later, in the 1880s. Mass emigration to America began from Transcarpathia, Halychyna, and Bukovyna, and its peak was in the 1890s. It was during this period that thousands of Ukrainians, looking for a better life and fleeing from difficult conditions, en masse moved overseas. This wave of immigration continued until the beginning of the First World War, and later, although on a smaller scale, continued in the interwar period.
The largest emigration was after World War II, when about 100,000 Ukrainians who lost their homes settled in the United States. Since then, the Ukrainian diaspora has only grown. Today, there are about one million people of Ukrainian origin living in the United States. It is interesting that the vast majority of them were born already on American soil, and only about 20% are people who emigrated directly. Despite this, Ukrainian culture remains alive — a third of people of Ukrainian origin speak the Ukrainian language, and 15% continue to use it in everyday life.
Ukrainians live quite compactly, and a significant part of them settled in northeastern industrial states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio and Florida. This did not happen by chance, because these states have long been attractive to workers due to the industrial boom of the late 19th century. Today, Ukrainians not only work in various sectors of the economy, but also actively participate in the social and political life of the country. Many Ukrainians live in Chicago, which long ago became the center of the Ukrainian community in America. The Ukrainian National Museum functions here, which has become not only a cultural center, but also a platform for political activity of the diaspora. New York and Philadelphia also long ago became the centers of Ukrainian culture in America, where cultural and political events regularly take place, and the Ukrainian language is heard in churches, schools and on the streets.
There are examples in the political history of the USA when the Ukrainian community played a significant role in election campaigns, especially in “shaky” states, where every vote is of great importance. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in the state of Georgia was ensured by a difference of only 11,000 votes. The political activity of Ukrainians is growing every year. They actively support candidates who are in favor of strengthening sanctions against Russia and increasing aid to Ukraine. In the 2020 election, the Ukrainian Congressional Committee of America (UCCA) called on Ukrainians to support Biden, given his stance on Ukraine, particularly during Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Aid in the military sphere is also important for Ukrainians, and this topic does not leave the agenda before every election. In their rhetoric, candidates often use the topic of Ukraine, promising support to Ukrainians in their struggle against Russian aggression. This puts voters from diasporic communities in the center of attention of both political camps. Therefore, the role of Ukrainians in the modern history of the United States is much greater than it might seem at first glance.
It should also be noted that the Ukrainian diaspora in the USA has powerful lobbying resources. One of the most influential is the Ukrainian Congressional Committee of America, which regularly contacts politicians at all levels, promoting the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians. In 2022, this committee actively contributed to the adoption in the US Congress of bills on the provision of billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Ukraine. Another example is the Union of Ukrainian Women of America, which for more than 100 years has been working not only to protect the interests of Ukrainians, but also actively participates in humanitarian actions aimed at supporting victims of the war in Ukraine.
The number of Ukrainians in the US has increased since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, but it should be noted that new Ukrainian refugees who arrived after 2022 do not have the right to vote because they did not receive American citizenship. Despite this, their presence reminds Americans of the importance of supporting Ukraine, which increases the interest of politicians in this topic. The 2024 election cycle promises to be no less fierce, and the Ukrainian community, particularly through its political and lobbying tools, will remain an important factor in political discussions.
In which states is the voice of Ukrainians particularly important?
During his visit to the USA, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Ukrainian community in Pennsylvania by chance. This state is one of those “shaky” states where the outcome of the elections often hangs in the balance. In 2016, Donald Trump won here with a margin of just over 44,000 votes, and in 2020, Joe Biden won by a margin of 80,000. Therefore, any, even minor, change in the political activity of individual communities can become decisive. It is not surprising that Zelenskyi’s meeting with Ukrainians caused a negative reaction from Trump and his supporters, who saw it as interference in the election process.
In Pennsylvania, where Biden won by a margin of only 80,000 votes in 2020, the Ukrainian community can significantly influence the outcome. This state is home to about 92,000 people who identify as Ukrainian-Americans, according to the latest census. But it is interesting that local sources, such as PennLive, cite even higher numbers, claiming that the number of people of Ukrainian origin here reaches 122 thousand. This is a significant part of voters, if you consider that in “shaky” states, every vote is worth its weight in gold.
It is also worth paying attention to New Jersey, where more than 73 thousand Ukrainians live. Although this state is not traditionally “shaky”, it is important from the point of view of participation in national elections. Ukrainians in New Jersey are often active participants in public life, and their support could be critical to bolstering Democrats’ position in national elections, especially because of their strong stance on the war in Ukraine. After all, the issue of supporting Ukraine in the war has become one of the main markers of the political orientation of many Ukrainians who could previously support the republicans.
Ohio is a state unto itself, where every vote counts. The Ukrainian community here numbers more than 47,000 people, which may seem insignificant compared to the total population of the state, but in the 2016 election, Trump won by a margin of only 8.1%. And if you take into account the current political dynamics, where the mood of the electorate is constantly changing, the votes of Ukrainians can easily change this balance. It is important to understand that Ohio has always been a kind of “indicator” of the country’s political loyalty. And the Ukrainians here are not just an electorate, but voters with a special request: support for Ukraine in the war.
Another example is Michigan. About 33,000 Ukrainians live here, and this state is also among the “shaky” ones. The 2016 election ended with a victory for Trump with a minimal margin of only 11,000 votes. Imagine how a few thousand Ukrainian votes could change the result if their political preferences changed a bit. And although Ukrainians have traditionally supported Republicans, in the context of the war in Ukraine, more and more of them are leaning toward Democrats, especially because of Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric regarding Ukraine.
Florida is another key state. Say Florida and most people immediately think of retirees and the sun. But this state is also one of the most unpredictable in elections, where each community has its own weight, and Ukrainians, who are about 28,000 here, play an important role. Yes, Trump won here in 2020, but by less than 400,000 votes. That’s not a huge difference for a state of more than 21 million people. Florida is a state within a state, and Ukrainians in cities like Miami and Orlando are increasingly interested in political issues, particularly those related to the war in Ukraine. Therefore, their activity may turn out to be the factor that will make Florida “wobbly” again.
In addition, in Minnesota, where about 15 thousand Ukrainians live, there is also an increase in the community’s political activity. The state has a reputation for being democratic, but the gap between the parties can be narrow, so the involvement of Ukrainians in the elections could shift the balance in favor of candidates who support Ukraine in the war with Russia.
An interesting fact is that Ukrainians in the US used to support the Republicans because of their strong stance on Russia, but in recent years their sympathies have changed. This became especially noticeable after Donald Trump began to make contradictory statements about the war in Ukraine, sometimes criticizing the Ukrainian leadership, and sometimes meeting with President Zelensky in a friendly atmosphere. Such inconsistency forced many Ukrainians to reconsider their political views and lean towards candidates who clearly support Ukraine.
Ukrainians and congressmen
The Ukrainian community in the USA influences political life not only through presidential elections, but also through voting for congressmen, where every vote counts. The history of American democracy shows that elections to the House of Representatives can often be decided by a difference of several thousand votes, and this is where Ukrainians become key voters. In at least 13 US electoral districts, the number of the Ukrainian community either exceeds or roughly corresponds to the number of votes needed for a candidate to win. This puts Ukrainians in a unique position where local congressmen seek to support their interests in order to secure their political careers. Many of them take a pro-Ukrainian position not only because of the strategic interests of the US, but also because of the desire to satisfy the electorate.
In addition, Americans of Ukrainian origin managed to achieve significant success in the political sphere of the United States, influencing both the domestic and foreign policy of the country. Their contribution becomes especially noticeable in matters of support for Ukraine in wartime and international politics. One of the most famous Ukrainians in the US Congress is Victoria Sparts, who was born in Ukraine and became the first congresswoman of Ukrainian origin. Spartz is a supporter of Donald Trump, but at the same time opposes large aid to Ukraine, which causes consternation in the community. Her position is atypical among politicians of Ukrainian origin, as the Ukrainian diaspora usually supports aid to their homeland. In addition, Spartz represents the state of Indiana, where the Ukrainian community is not numerous, so its voters mostly support other priorities.
On the other side of the political scene is Marcy Kaptur, who has long been known for her initiatives in support of Ukraine. Kaptur is one of the most influential figures in Congress on Ukrainian issues and has taken a strong pro-Ukrainian position for decades. She is the co-chair of the Ukrainian Congressional Caucus, which includes more than 90 congressmen united in their efforts to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. This caucus resembles inter-factional associations in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, but with greater influence on the political course of the United States. In 2023, Marcy Kaptur made history as the longest-serving woman in the US Congress. She has represented the 9th district of the state of Ohio since 1982, and during this time her pro-Ukrainian position has only strengthened. Kaptur, without exaggeration, became the face of American support for Ukraine in Congress, and many of her initiatives were aimed at increasing military and economic aid.
Ukrainian roots are also among the governors of some American states. For example, Jared Polis, the governor of the state of Colorado, is a descendant of immigrants from Poland and Ukraine. After the full-scale invasion of Russia began, Polis actively collected aid for Ukraine, and his office worked on Ukrainian refugee issues, providing support to families fleeing the war.
Another example is JB Pritzker, governor of the state of Illinois, whose family also comes from Ukraine. Pritzker strongly condemned Russia’s aggression and advocated increased cooperation with the Ukrainian armed forces. The National Guard of the State of Illinois, which he oversees, closely cooperates with the Ukrainian military, conducting joint training and exchanging experience.
Kurt Volker is a former US special representative for Ukraine, although he is not an elected politician, he was actively involved in the Ukrainian issue during his time in the US administration and played an important role in supporting defense aid to Ukraine.
John Shimkus, a former congressman from the state of Illinois, comes from a family of Ukrainian immigrants. For a long time, he was an active member of the Ukrainian caucus of the Congress and advocated the strengthening of sanctions against Russia after the annexation of Crimea. Shymkus was one of those who consistently supported military aid to Ukraine, insisting on providing lethal weapons to Ukrainian forces. Even after the end of his career in Congress, he continues to actively support Ukraine in the public sphere.
So, the Ukrainian community in the USA is not just a part of the electorate, which at first glance seems invisible, but a real political “joker” that has a real influence on American politics. In “shaky” states, the votes of Ukrainians can change the outcome of the elections, their support for candidates with a clear pro-Ukrainian position can be decisive in the fight for the White House. Politicians who ignore this risk being left out of the game. Therefore, Ukrainians should not be considered as spectators, but as real players capable of influencing America’s course and supporting Ukraine on the world stage.
Oksana Ishchenko
