The question of the return of Ukrainian refugees after the war depends not only on the date of the end of hostilities, but also on what security will be in Ukraine, whether people will have a place to return to, whether children will keep their jobs and studies in Europe. Their return also depends on what rules of residence the EU countries will offer after the end of temporary protection. These are the factors that the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees took into account when it assessed several scenarios for millions of Ukrainians who left abroad because of the war.
What the results of the UN study showed
The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees analyzed possible options for the development of the situation for Ukrainians who left for Europe because of the war. The study considers three scenarios: continuation of hostilities without significant changes, the end of the active phase of the war under conditions of “fragile peace,” and Ukraine’s victory with the restoration of territorial integrity.
The authors of the study emphasize that these calculations are not an accurate forecast of the future. They show how the security situation, political decisions, economic conditions and rules of stay in Europe can influence the choice of Ukrainians between returning home and continuing their life abroad.
Under the “fragile peace” scenario, active hostilities cease, but Russia retains de facto control over the occupied territories. At the same time, a stable level of investment in the regions controlled by Ukraine is assumed and the temporary protection for Ukrainians in the EU countries ends in March 2027.
Under such conditions, about 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees may remain in Europe by the end of 2029. This is approximately 56% of their current number, i.e. more than half of the people who left because of the war may continue to live outside Ukraine for several more years after the end of the active phase of hostilities.
Another option involves the continuation of the war without significant changes on the front. In such a situation, return becomes less likely for most families, as issues of safety, work, housing and education for children remain uncertain.
In this scenario, according to the UN, about 5.16 million Ukrainians could remain in Europe by the end of 2029. This is almost 99% of the current number of Ukrainian refugees in European countries.
The study predicts the lowest share of Ukrainians abroad in the event of Ukraine’s victory and the full restoration of territorial integrity by the end of the year. In such a development, some people will have more reasons to return, especially if Ukraine has conditions for safe residence, employment and the restoration of destroyed communities.
In this scenario, about 32% of Ukrainian refugees could remain in Europe. This is approximately 1.67 million people who, for various reasons, will continue to live abroad even after a significant improvement in the situation in Ukraine.
Where the Most Ukrainians May Remain
According to UN estimates, the largest number of Ukrainian refugees may continue to live in Germany. The study names an estimated figure of about 789 thousand people.
Poland also remains one of the key destinations for Ukrainians. According to calculations, more than 530 thousand Ukrainian citizens may live there, since the country accepted a large number of people from the first months of the full-scale invasion and has close transport, language and family ties with Ukraine.
The decision of Ukrainians is influenced not only by the cessation of hostilities. For many families, the condition of housing in Ukraine, the opportunity to find work, access to medicine, education of children, security in a particular region and the prospect of a stable legal status in Europe remain important.
During their stay abroad, many Ukrainians have already integrated into local life. Children study in schools, adults work, some families have long-term leases, social ties and plans that are difficult to change quickly even after the end of the active phase of the war.
Problems with work and income
UN researchers draw attention to the difficult situation with employment. Almost 60% of Ukrainians working in Europe have jobs below their qualifications. This means that people with education, experience and professional skills are often forced to accept simpler or lower-paid positions.
The incomes of Ukrainian refugees in Europe are approximately 40% lower than those of the local population. This difference shows that integration into the labor market does not always provide financial stability, especially for families with children, older people and those with language or documentation difficulties.
Risks after the end of temporary protection
The study pays special attention to temporary protection, which gives Ukrainians in EU countries the right to reside, work, social services and access to education. The end of this mechanism without transitional solutions could create significant difficulties for both Ukrainians themselves and European states.
The UN warns that an abrupt end to temporary protection in 2027 could overwhelm asylum systems, complicate legalization, and trigger new movements of Ukrainians between European countries. That is why European governments are recommended to prepare long-term rules in advance for those who already work, study, or have family abroad.
What solutions are proposed for Europe
Possible steps include simplified residence permits, new protection formats, and transitional mechanisms for Ukrainians who have already integrated in European countries. Such solutions should help avoid legal uncertainty after temporary protection ends.
For Ukraine, these scenarios also have practical implications, as the return of citizens will depend on the reconstruction of housing, jobs, community security, and the ability to provide families with conditions for a normal life after the war.
