Russian troops break into Kharkiv region: what to expect in the near future

The Deputy Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Vadym Skibytsky reported the other day that the Russian Federation is planning an offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv, adding that 35,000 military personnel are concentrated on the border with the latter.

IA “FACT” has collected currently available information regarding the attack on Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region.

On the night of May 10, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out another missile attack on Kharkiv, which resulted in casualties and fires in civilian infrastructure and private houses. Also, on the morning of May 10, Russian armored groups tried to break through the defense bridgehead of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​Vovchansk and Lyptsi, but despite the repulse of this attack by Ukrainian artillery, the fierce fighting on this part of the front still does not stop.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi confirmed the start of the offensive on Kharkiv region, noting that an artillery battle took place on May 10 around 7:00 a.m., but the advance of the Russian Armed Forces was stopped. Earlier, he stated that the Ukrainian leadership understood the intentions of the Russian army regarding further actions in the Kharkiv region, so new forces would be added there to thwart the enemy’s offensive plans.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also confirmed the attempted attack on the Kharkiv region, stating that the breakthrough attempt began at 5:00 a.m. on April 10, but was unsuccessful, and our reserve units were sent to the scene of the fighting.

Oleg Sinegubov, the head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration, also spoke about attempts to break through by Russian DRGs and increased shelling of the border:

“The armed forces of Ukraine confidently hold their positions: not a single meter has been lost. The enemy group does not pose a threat to Kharkiv, its forces are sufficient only for provocations in the northern direction.”

The Deep State map shows the details of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv region, which began from two directions, they are marked by a gray zone: directly in the direction of Kharkiv, in the villages of Strylecha, Krasne, Pylna and Borysivka, as well as in the direction of Vovchansk.

The Ministry of Defense commented on the intensification of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region, noting that during the last day they carried out strikes with the help of anti-aircraft missiles in the Vovchan direction, in the area of ​​the settlements of Liptsi, Oliynikovo and Ohirtseve, and also increased fire pressure along the front edge of the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the help of artillery :

“At approximately 05:00 in the morning, there was an attempt by the enemy to break through our defense line under the cover of armored vehicles. As of this time these attacks have been repulsed, battles of varying intensity continue.”

The department emphasized that additional units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were sent to the Kharkiv region, they are resisting the enemy’s intentions to advance as much as possible, are conducting artillery fire on the enemy, but he is accumulating forces, creating separate assault groups.

At the same time as the mentioned settlements, the Russians intensified their shelling of Kharkiv and other border communities of the Kharkiv region. Almost every day, several times a day, Kharkiv is attacked by Russian troops. In addition, 30 settlements of Kharkiv region are under artillery and mortar fire of the enemy: Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Berestov and others. Air strikes are subjected to, for example, Hlyboke, Lukyantsi, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Vesele, Vilcha, Lyptsi, Slobozhanske, Sosnovy Bir, Ukrainsk, village. Odnobivka of the Bogodukhiv district.

In addition, over the past day, Ukrainian troops have repelled 13 attacks in the Kupyansk direction in the areas of Sinkivka, Berestov of the Kharkiv region, as well as 9 attacks were repelled in the Slobozhansk direction in the areas of Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliynikove, Gatishche and others.

Currently, the regional leadership has evacuated 1,048 local residents from the Chuguyiv district, 440 from the Kharkiv district, 12 from the Bogoduhiv district, of which 275 people were evacuated by volunteers. A total of 1,775 people have already been evacuated.

Now all residents of the Kharkiv region are worried about the question of what will happen next and what they should do in connection with the deterioration of the situation.

In an interview with The Economist, the commander of the Ground Forces, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, said that the turning point of the war may come in the next two months. Since American aid has just begun to reach the front line, the Russian Federation is throwing all the combat equipment it has at the Ukrainian troops.

“Russia knows that if we get enough weapons in a month or two, the tide can turn against them.” – said Oleksandr Pavlyuk.

In addition, the commander emphasized that Ukraine urgently needs strengthened air defense. The expected delivery of F-16 fighter jets by early June will provide a significant boost, however, it remains uncertain whether Ukraine will receive the new versions of F-16s needed to counter Russian bombers.

Pavliuk believes that Russia will continue to focus on the eastern regions, which bear the brunt of the war. However, according to intelligence, Russian troops may soon strengthen their defenses by attacking the northeastern districts of Kharkiv and Sumy.

“Russia checks the stability of our lines before choosing the most profitable direction”, Pavlyuk added.

In turn, the deputy commander of the 3rd OShBr Maksym Zhorin believes that the attempted offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the north of the Kharkiv region, which occurred on Friday, May 10, was predictable and uncritical.

“The events in the Kharkiv direction are absolutely predictable history for the Ukrainian army. So far, nothing critical has happened, the Russians have started a movement that our forces knew about and were preparing for. The main thing to understand is that for now it is more like probing our defense line. The enemy has not yet used its main forces.” – Zhorin wrote in Telegram.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the efforts currently being made by Russian forces do not indicate that it is a large-scale offensive operation aimed at encircling and capturing Kharkiv. Military analysts are convinced that Russian operations in the Vovchansk direction do not contribute to the immediate advance to Kharkiv, since Vovchansk is located on the eastern bank of the Siversky Donets River and the Pecheneg reservoir. These operations may be aimed at drawing Ukrainian units from other areas, which will allow Russian troops to put pressure on the operational rear of Ukrainian forces defending in the Kupyan direction.

In addition, ISW analysts also assess an attack on Kharkiv from the Lyptsiv region as unlikely due to the vulnerability of this route. In their opinion, the offensive actions in the Lyptsi area of ​​the Russian Federation are being conducted because there they see the most direct way to advance to the zone of effective radius of action of the tube artillery, which will allow firing with indirect guidance of Kharkiv.

IN ISW continue to emphasize that Russian forces will likely find it difficult to capture Kharkiv if they seek to do so.

Also, military analysts believe that the Russian Federation’s efforts to seize Kharkiv will require long-term movements through open terrain on a scale that it has not carried out since the beginning of a full-scale invasion. At the same time, some units of the Russian Northern Group of Forces may not be very combat-ready, including due to a lack of personnel, which will be necessary for the successful implementation of such an ambitious operation.

According to some estimates of Russian sources, the Russians need an additional 300,000 soldiers for the operation to encircle Kharkiv. However, according to various estimates, there are only 35,000 to 50,000 troops in the area of ​​the international border. Therefore, ISW believes that a large-scale Russian attempt to capture Kharkiv will likely require Russian forces to redeploy a significant number of forces from other areas of the front to the border zone, which they are unlikely to do given their goal of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

At the same time, military expert Mykhailo Samus believes that the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be able to drive enemy aircraft away from the border if they had a sufficient number of aircraft. Enemy aircraft cannot operate freely in the airspace of Ukraine, so they are forced to attack Ukrainian cities from a distance of at least 50 km from the front line.

“If you look at the map and the scale, it is hundreds of kilometers. The problem of Russian aviation is that it cannot operate freely in our space. It can approach, for example, 50 km to the front line or the border and launch KABs or FABs with modules… That is, they cannot enter our airspace. If Ukraine had a sufficient number of aircraft, then the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be able to repel enemy aircraft even further from the border.” – said Samus.

So, despite the fact that units of the Defense Forces are ready for an assault, the situation in the Kharkiv region remains difficult, but not critical. According to the military, the resources used by the Russian Federation at the moment will not be enough for a deep advance, but it is not known how many main forces it is ready to attract for this maneuver in the future.

Currently, the situation consists of destabilization carried out by the Russian Federation in the border areas. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold positions along the border of the Kharkiv region, making maximum efforts to repulse the next offensive actions by the Russian Federation.

Residents of Kharkiv should not panic, but should listen to calls from the military and local authorities and, if necessary, evacuate to safe places. Meanwhile, Kharkiv is gradually being transferred underground. Mayor Ihor Terekhov said that the city plans to create underground premises for the placement of operating and resuscitation departments on the basis of a number of medical institutions. Also, the network of underground cultural institutions will be expanded in the city, as there is a demand for safe cultural events among the citizens.

Last month, in response to the constant shelling of Kharkiv, the local authorities decided to create the first underground service center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Ukraine, which made it possible to ensure the safety of both employees and visitors during air raids and shelling. In addition, in the village of Korotichi near Kharkiv, the construction of Ukraine’s first underground school, which can withstand a direct hit by an S-300 missile, began. At the same time, during emergencies, this shelter will be able to accommodate people from a nearby kindergarten, offices and other institutions.

At the same time, the Kharkiv underground school will start its work on May 13, where it is planned to educate more than 600 children, while it is expected that there will be almost a thousand students from September 1.

Oksana Ishchenko