The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to leave the discount rate at 15.5%. Such a step will allow maintaining optimal monetary conditions for the stability of the foreign exchange market, controlling inflationary expectations and gradually reducing inflation to the target level of 5%. The regulator emphasizes that it is ready to promptly respond to a change in the balance of risks.
Inflation is gradually decreasing, although it remains high. For three months in a row, the pace of growth in consumer prices has been slowing — in August, the indicator decreased to 13.2% y/y, which turned out to be somewhat better than the forecast of the NBU (Inflation Report for July 2025). Core inflation decreased to 11.4% y/y, which is almost in line with forecast estimates.
Decreasing rates of price growth can be explained by several factors. The arrival of the new harvest reduced the inflationary pressure on raw products, which in turn restrained the rise in the price of processed food. Prices of services and non-food goods also showed a slowdown. Among the factors are the previous decisions of the NBU in the field of monetary policy and the reduction of imbalances in the labor market. In particular, the gap between the actual level of salaries and the expectations of candidates has narrowed, and the supply of labor force has also increased.
Surveys show that inflation expectations of households and financial analysts improved in August, although they still remain in double digits in most groups. At the same time, search query data confirm the increased interest of the population in the topic of inflation. The NBU predicts a further slowdown in inflation. This will be facilitated by the effects of the new crop and the preservation of the attractiveness of hryvnia assets together with the stability of the foreign exchange market.
External financing remains sufficient to support international reserves and cover the budget deficit. Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has received more than $30 billion in international aid, of which $7.5 billion came in July and August. This made it possible to increase international reserves to 46 billion dollars in August and finance critical budget expenditures. The further receipt of funds depends on the continuation of European integration reforms and effective cooperation with the IMF.
