The world has lost more than 1 billion barrels of oil due to the war in the Middle East

The global market has been short of 1.15 billion barrels of oil after nearly four months of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the signing of a memorandum between Iran and the United States, the full restoration of oil flows may take a long time, and prices risk rising again. This is reported by CNN.

According to Kpler, the world has lost 1.15 billion barrels of oil due to the war. This has significantly reduced stocks and increased risks for a market that is increasingly dependent on reserves.

The International Energy Agency’s strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1990. The US strategic oil reserve has shrunk to a 43-year low, and commercial stocks have approached operational stress levels. US President Donald Trump said at the G7 summit in Versailles that reserves could last about four weeks.

At the same time, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that supplies will resume immediately. First, the route needs to be cleared of mines, empty tankers returned to the region, production resumed and oil delivered to consumers. The industry suggests that this process could take months.

Following reports of an agreement between the US and Iran, Brent prices began to decline. From a peak of $126.41 per barrel during the war period, they fell below $80 per barrel.

However, in recent months, global oil inventories have decreased by 190 million barrels. In particular, the oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, has reached a level of operational load at which it becomes more difficult to maintain stable pressure in the pipelines.

Analysts believe that the market may be underestimating the threat of a shortage until supplies from the Persian Gulf return to near-normal volumes.

According to the International Energy Agency, even if the global market produces almost 5 million barrels per day more than it consumes, it may take about a year to compensate for the lost 1.15 billion barrels.

At the same time, some analysts believe that the risks in the market are exaggerated. They note that global reserves have indeed decreased, but remain close to last year’s levels. U.S. diesel inventories are 12.4% below the five-year average, and gasoline inventories are about 5% lower than last year.

As of May, the military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has already cost global companies at least $25 billion in losses. The crisis has sent oil prices soaring, disrupted logistics, and sparked a wave of global inflation.