Experts of the Kiel Institute of World Economy predict that aid to Ukraine from key Western partners may significantly decrease from 2025. Such conclusions were made in a recent study by Ukraine Support Tracker, published on October 10, Ukrinform reports.
The study deals with possible risks for further support of Ukraine. The possible re-election of Donald Trump to the post of US president is among the key factors that may affect the reduction of aid. His second term could lead to the blocking of new aid packages for Ukraine in Congress. It also considers the possibility that European countries may switch to using alternative financing schemes, in particular the use of frozen Russian assets or new NATO contributions, which may partially replace the current financial support from Europe.
At the same time, the authors of the study note that in the summer months of 2024, aid to Ukraine from Western countries increased compared to the spring, mainly due to increased funding for the country’s economic stabilization. In general, Ukraine received about 14.6 billion euros in aid in July and August. In July, a significant part of this amount, about 5.5 billion euros, was directed to military aid. In August, the emphasis shifted to financial support — 7.9 billion euros were allocated for economic stabilization and reconstruction, in particular through the EU Mechanism for Ukraine, which provided 2.8 billion euros in loans and 1.5 billion euros in grants.
The USA, which provided Ukraine with 3.5 billion euros in financial aid through the World Bank, also remains an important source of funding. At the same time, humanitarian aid remained relatively modest at just €0.2 billion in July and less than €0.1 billion in August.
Pietro Bomprezzi, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker project, emphasized that although aid for reconstruction and humanitarian needs is important, these areas still remain underfunded. Given the approach of the winter period, Western partners should increase aid, in particular for the restoration of critical infrastructure and energy systems destroyed during Russian attacks.
Experts also warn that a possible cut in aid in 2025 could have serious consequences. If Trump wins the US election, military aid to Ukraine could drop to 34 billion euros, and financial support would drop to 46 billion euros. Additional risks are created by Germany, which has already announced its intention to cut its military allocations for Ukraine in half, which may cause similar actions on the part of other European partners.
In the case of the worst-case scenario, total aid to Ukraine in 2025 could drop to €55 billion, compared to the expected over €100 billion. However, new financing mechanisms, such as NATO contributions or loans obtained from frozen Russian assets, could provide an additional €40 billion in military aid. However, these measures may be temporary and are not a substitute for ongoing bilateral support.
Bomprezzi emphasized that the new financing schemes, although important, are not large-scale and may turn out to be only short-term solutions. Ukraine needs constant and stable financial support to overcome the challenges it faces due to the war.
