Ukraine’s industrial sector is gradually reducing the pace of raw milk production against the backdrop of falling purchase prices, accumulation of finished product stocks and weak domestic demand. In November 2025, the country produced 507 thousand tons of milk, which is 61 thousand tons less than in October. This was reported by the Milk Producers Association.
According to the results of January-November 2025, the total milk yield was 6.38 million tons, which is 299 thousand tons, or 4%, less compared to the same period last year. The share of agricultural enterprises in November reached 52%, while households provided 48% of production.
In November, enterprises produced 266 thousand tons of raw milk – this is 0.5% more than in October and 15% more than in November 2024. Over the 11 months of 2025, industrial dairy farms increased production to 2.91 million tons, which is 8% higher than last year. At the same time, in the household sector, milk yields decreased to 241 thousand tons in November, which is 21% less both monthly and annually. In January-November, households produced 3.47 million tons of milk, which is 13% less than last year.
The growth of industrial milk production was recorded in 15 regions. The highest rates were shown by Zakarpattia, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Kharkiv, Rivne and Ternopil regions. Approximately 55% of all raw milk produced by enterprises falls on five regions – Poltava, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia and Chernihiv regions.
The overall reduction in milk production in Ukraine is due primarily to the decline in the homestead sector, which is gradually losing its role in the industry. If small farms do not merge or increase their livestock by 2030, their production will remain mostly for their own consumption. The industrial sector is currently compensating for these losses, but growth slowed in November due to low prices, a milk surplus, weak demand, and imbalances on the world market.
Analysts predict that in 2026, milk production in Ukraine could decline to about 6.8 million tons. The reduction will affect both households and industrial farms, where large players will optimize costs, and some small MTFs may cease operations. Market stabilization is expected to begin in the second half of 2026.
In the medium term, Ukrainian producers who maintain their herds and invest in sustainability may gain advantages in international markets. As early as 2027, global milk supply may start to lag behind demand, and a shortage of quality raw materials is forecast in 2028–2030, particularly in the EU. This opens up opportunities for Ukraine to strengthen its position in the markets of North Africa and the Middle East due to lower production costs.
In the beef segment, in January-November 2025, cattle slaughter at enterprises amounted to 115.86 thousand tons, of which 11.13 thousand tons fell in November. More than half of the volumes were provided by enterprises in Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia and Chernihiv regions.
For 11 months of 2025, Ukraine exported dairy products worth $375.43 million, which is 35% more than in the same period last year. Condensed milk was the main factor behind the export growth in November.
