China is closely analyzing US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran, trying to draw conclusions that could be useful in the event of any future confrontation, in particular around Taiwan. Beijing is carefully studying the offensive capabilities of the United States and is increasingly inclined to believe that the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific region is shifting in China’s favor. This is reported by Bloomberg, citing Western officials.
According to them, the Chinese authorities are likely receiving extremely valuable information by observing US military actions in Iran. Beijing will almost certainly factor this into its own military planning in the event of a potential conflict over Taiwan.
While China continues to assess the economic and diplomatic implications of a US-Israeli war with Iran, Xi Jinping is likely to welcome the fact that Washington’s attention and resources are partially shifting from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East.
One of the reasons for this conclusion, Western officials say, is the redeployment of US military resources from Asia towards Iran. Against this background, the Chinese military may see certain advantages for itself. This also suggests that another rival of Washington could potentially benefit from a US war with Iran. US allies have previously warned that rising oil prices and easing sanctions pressure could also be beneficial for Vladimir Putin.
Unlike most G20 leaders, Xi Jinping has not yet publicly spoken about the US operation against Iran, which remains an important partner of China. Beijing seems to be trying to understand the full scope of the consequences of this war. At the same time, although China has repeatedly stated that Taiwan should come under Beijing’s control, by force if necessary, there are currently no signs of preparations for the immediate implementation of such a scenario.
An additional factor of uncertainty remains the large-scale purge of the Chinese general staff, which Xi Jinping has launched as part of an anti-corruption campaign. It is the biggest shakeup in China’s military since the end of Mao Zedong’s era in 1976, and it has already raised doubts about the People’s Liberation Army’s readiness for a major war.
At the same time, some influential Chinese commentators are speaking out much more bluntly. Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, drew direct parallels with Taiwan last week and said that the protracted war has demonstrated the “strain” of American military capabilities, even though Iran has been weakened by years of sanctions.
Meanwhile, US allies in Asia are on high alert as the Pentagon continues to spend its weapons stockpiles in the Middle East. The US is moving up to 2,400 Marines from Japan to the region, as well as a command ship with a squadron of F-35 fighter jets and helicopters on board. South Korean President Lee Jae-myeon also confirmed that the United States will likely have to move air defense systems to the Middle East after reports of the withdrawal of modern missile defense system launchers from Asia.
Western officials also believe that China is positive about the rapid depletion of American ammunition stocks in the early weeks of the war. American forces had to expend expensive and difficult-to-replenish interceptors to repel Iranian strikes. In particular, to destroy the relatively cheap Shahed-136 drones, the US and its allies were forced to use systems designed primarily to combat much more modern threats.
Washington has not released an official estimate of the full cost of the campaign, and open data on missile stocks remains limited. At the same time, The New York Times reported that in the first six days of the operation against Iran alone, US spending reached $11.3 billion. Rheinmetall AG estimated the cost of US ammunition used during the first 72 hours of the war at $4 billion. According to this estimate, this amounts to approximately 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors.
According to some Chinese commentators, this redistribution of American forces also indicates the emergence of cracks in the West’s ability to project military power in the region directly bordering China.
